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Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc (PTGX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered a headline beat driven by collaboration revenue: diluted EPS was $1.98 vs prior year $0.44, on license/collaboration revenue of $170.6M vs $60.0M in Q4 2023, largely reflecting a $165.0M icotrokinra milestone earned in Q4 and received in January 2025 .
- Wall Street (S&P Global) consensus was unavailable; alternative sources indicate consensus EPS near $0.06 and revenue ~$81.0M, making the quarter a major beat; the non-recurring milestone is the principal driver of the surprise .
- Cash runway extended to at least end of 2028 after year-end cash of $559.2M and the $165.0M milestone, supporting advancement of rusfertide and icotrokinra programs and new oral peptide candidates (PN-881, obesity, hepcidin) .
- Near-term catalysts in March 2025: VERIFY Phase 3 topline for rusfertide in PV and ANTHEM Phase 2b topline for icotrokinra in UC; positive Phase 3 ICONIC results in psoriasis already secured in Q4 2024, triggering the milestone .
- Shares showed a modest negative drift post-release despite the beat, likely reflecting the non-recurring nature of revenue; four days after the Feb 21, 2025 report, price change was -6.22% per one tracker .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Secured a substantial $165.0M milestone from the icotrokinra program in Q4 2024, evidencing progress and partnership strength with JNJ; cash receipt in January 2025 bolsters liquidity .
- Positive topline Phase 3 ICONIC-LEAD/TOTAL results in psoriasis (IGA 0/1: 64.7% at week 16; PASI90: 49.6%) with further improvements at week 24 and safety consistent with prior studies—management: “compelling efficacy and safety trends... best-in-class oral agent” .
- Strengthened balance sheet and runway to at least end-2028, enabling continued independent progression of early-stage oral peptide programs (PN-881; obesity; hepcidin) .
What Went Wrong
- Heavy reliance on non-recurring collaboration revenue for Q4 and FY results; core operating expenses remain elevated (Q4 R&D $34.9M; G&A $9.0M), with YoY increases tied to discovery and advisory/legal fees (Takeda agreement) and stock-based compensation .
- Q3 2024 showed operating losses with minimal recognized collaboration revenue, highlighting quarterly volatility tied to milestone timing (Q3 revenue $4.7M; net loss $(33.2)M) .
- No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available in our sources, limiting visibility into real-time management Q&A on commercialization timelines, regulatory strategy, and expense cadence [earnings-call-transcript search returned none].
Financial Results
Income Statement Snapshot
Balance Sheet / Liquidity KPIs
Other P&L Items
Actual vs Consensus (alternative sources; S&P Global unavailable)
- Note: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable at time of request; values below use public sources for context (non-S&P).
- EPS and Revenue vs estimates:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available; themes below reflect press releases and prior-quarter disclosures.
Management Commentary
- “Protagonist is quickly approaching multiple late-stage transformational events... We are fortunate to be in a strong cash position, enabling the flexibility to progress these early-stage peptide drug candidates independently...” — Dinesh V. Patel, Ph.D., President & CEO .
- “These positive Phase 3 results confirm the compelling efficacy and safety trends... highlighting icotrokinra’s potential as a best-in-class oral agent...” — Dinesh V. Patel, Ph.D. .
Q&A Highlights
- No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available in our document catalog or public transcript sources; therefore, no formal Q&A highlights to report [earnings-call-transcript search returned none].
Estimates Context
- S&P Global Wall Street consensus data was unavailable at time of request.
- Alternative public sources indicate: Q4 2024 EPS consensus ~$0.06 vs actual $1.98 (major beat); revenue consensus ~$81.0M vs actual $170.6M (major beat) .
- Given non-recurring milestone recognition, forward estimates may normalize lower on revenue/earnings absent additional milestones; monitoring upcoming VERIFY and ANTHEM readouts is key to directional revisions.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- The quarter’s outsized beat was driven by a $165M icotrokinra milestone; treat Q4 strength as largely non-recurring in the near term .
- Cash runway extended to at least end-2028 provides capacity to advance rusfertide, icotrokinra, and early oral peptide programs without near-term financing pressure .
- Pipeline de-risking: positive Phase 3 ICONIC PsO results underpin future royalty potential and partnership economics with JNJ, with additional superiority and UC data in 1H 2025 as stock-moving catalysts .
- VERIFY Phase 3 (PV) results in March 2025 are pivotal for rusfertide’s path to NDA and economic participation with Takeda; outcome will influence valuation and estimate revisions .
- Expense discipline remains important: R&D and G&A are elevated; absent milestones, quarterly losses can reemerge—watch deferred revenue recognition cadence from the Takeda agreement .
- Stock reaction to Q4 print was muted-to-negative post-release, likely reflecting investor focus on sustainability vs milestone timing; positioning into March catalysts may offer trading opportunities .
- No Q4 call transcript available; rely on upcoming events (PV Day replay, conferences) and filings for guidance nuance and commercialization timelines .