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Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc (PTGX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered a headline beat driven by collaboration revenue: diluted EPS was $1.98 vs prior year $0.44, on license/collaboration revenue of $170.6M vs $60.0M in Q4 2023, largely reflecting a $165.0M icotrokinra milestone earned in Q4 and received in January 2025 .
  • Wall Street (S&P Global) consensus was unavailable; alternative sources indicate consensus EPS near $0.06 and revenue ~$81.0M, making the quarter a major beat; the non-recurring milestone is the principal driver of the surprise .
  • Cash runway extended to at least end of 2028 after year-end cash of $559.2M and the $165.0M milestone, supporting advancement of rusfertide and icotrokinra programs and new oral peptide candidates (PN-881, obesity, hepcidin) .
  • Near-term catalysts in March 2025: VERIFY Phase 3 topline for rusfertide in PV and ANTHEM Phase 2b topline for icotrokinra in UC; positive Phase 3 ICONIC results in psoriasis already secured in Q4 2024, triggering the milestone .
  • Shares showed a modest negative drift post-release despite the beat, likely reflecting the non-recurring nature of revenue; four days after the Feb 21, 2025 report, price change was -6.22% per one tracker .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Secured a substantial $165.0M milestone from the icotrokinra program in Q4 2024, evidencing progress and partnership strength with JNJ; cash receipt in January 2025 bolsters liquidity .
  • Positive topline Phase 3 ICONIC-LEAD/TOTAL results in psoriasis (IGA 0/1: 64.7% at week 16; PASI90: 49.6%) with further improvements at week 24 and safety consistent with prior studies—management: “compelling efficacy and safety trends... best-in-class oral agent” .
  • Strengthened balance sheet and runway to at least end-2028, enabling continued independent progression of early-stage oral peptide programs (PN-881; obesity; hepcidin) .

What Went Wrong

  • Heavy reliance on non-recurring collaboration revenue for Q4 and FY results; core operating expenses remain elevated (Q4 R&D $34.9M; G&A $9.0M), with YoY increases tied to discovery and advisory/legal fees (Takeda agreement) and stock-based compensation .
  • Q3 2024 showed operating losses with minimal recognized collaboration revenue, highlighting quarterly volatility tied to milestone timing (Q3 revenue $4.7M; net loss $(33.2)M) .
  • No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available in our sources, limiting visibility into real-time management Q&A on commercialization timelines, regulatory strategy, and expense cadence [earnings-call-transcript search returned none].

Financial Results

Income Statement Snapshot

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
License & Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$60.0 $4.7 $170.6
Research & Development Expense ($USD Millions)$28.9 $36.0 $34.9
General & Administrative Expense ($USD Millions)$8.1 $10.2 $9.0
Net Income ($USD Millions)$27.3 $(33.2) $131.7
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.44 $(0.54) $1.98

Balance Sheet / Liquidity KPIs

MetricDec 31, 2023Sep 30, 2024Dec 31, 2024
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$341.6 $583.3 $559.2
Working Capital ($USD Millions)$334.3 $432.2 $544.2
Total Assets ($USD Millions)$358.0 $603.9 $744.7
Deferred Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.0 $36.2 $30.6
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)$336.7 $531.9 $675.3

Other P&L Items

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Interest Income ($USD Millions)$4.24 $7.68 $6.85
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$37.0 $46.1 $43.9

Actual vs Consensus (alternative sources; S&P Global unavailable)

  • Note: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable at time of request; values below use public sources for context (non-S&P).
  • EPS and Revenue vs estimates:
MetricEstimateActualSurprise
Q4 2024 Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.06 $1.98 +$1.92 (major beat)
Q4 2024 Revenue ($USD Millions)$81.0 $170.6 +$89.6 (major beat)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayCorporateThrough end of 2027 Through at least end of 2028 (incl. $165M milestone) Raised runway by ≥1 year
Icotrokinra (Psoriasis) ICONIC-LEAD/TOTALPsO Phase 3Primary endpoints completion expected Q4 2024 Positive topline achieved Q4 2024; milestone earned Achieved/accelerated payments
Rusfertide (PV) VERIFY toplinePhase 3Topline expected Q1 2025 Topline expected March 2025 Timing clarified (still Q1)
Icotrokinra (UC) ANTHEM toplinePhase 2bPrimary endpoints completion expected Q4 2024 Topline expected March 2025 Timing clarified to March

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available; themes below reflect press releases and prior-quarter disclosures.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
R&D execution (ICONIC PsO)Phase 3 ICONIC primary endpoints expected in Q4 2024 Positive Phase 3 topline in PsO; strong IGA/PASI outcomes; safety consistent Positive validation
Regulatory/milestones (JNJ)Anticipated milestones; collaboration in place $165M milestone earned; agreement amended to accelerate payments De-risked milestone timing
Rusfertide PVVERIFY topline expected Q1 2025 VERIFY topline expected March 2025; PV Day held Feb 6, 2025 Imminent catalyst
Discovery pipeline (PN-881; obesity; hepcidin)Oral IL-17 program, DC nomination by end-2024; obesity/hepcidin in 2025 PN-881 nominated Q4 2024; obesity DC expected Q2 2025; hepcidin DC Q4 2025 Advancing pipeline
Liquidity/runwayCash ~$595M; runway through 2027 Cash $559M plus $165M milestone; runway through at least 2028 Strengthened

Management Commentary

  • “Protagonist is quickly approaching multiple late-stage transformational events... We are fortunate to be in a strong cash position, enabling the flexibility to progress these early-stage peptide drug candidates independently...” — Dinesh V. Patel, Ph.D., President & CEO .
  • “These positive Phase 3 results confirm the compelling efficacy and safety trends... highlighting icotrokinra’s potential as a best-in-class oral agent...” — Dinesh V. Patel, Ph.D. .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available in our document catalog or public transcript sources; therefore, no formal Q&A highlights to report [earnings-call-transcript search returned none].

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global Wall Street consensus data was unavailable at time of request.
  • Alternative public sources indicate: Q4 2024 EPS consensus ~$0.06 vs actual $1.98 (major beat); revenue consensus ~$81.0M vs actual $170.6M (major beat) .
  • Given non-recurring milestone recognition, forward estimates may normalize lower on revenue/earnings absent additional milestones; monitoring upcoming VERIFY and ANTHEM readouts is key to directional revisions.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter’s outsized beat was driven by a $165M icotrokinra milestone; treat Q4 strength as largely non-recurring in the near term .
  • Cash runway extended to at least end-2028 provides capacity to advance rusfertide, icotrokinra, and early oral peptide programs without near-term financing pressure .
  • Pipeline de-risking: positive Phase 3 ICONIC PsO results underpin future royalty potential and partnership economics with JNJ, with additional superiority and UC data in 1H 2025 as stock-moving catalysts .
  • VERIFY Phase 3 (PV) results in March 2025 are pivotal for rusfertide’s path to NDA and economic participation with Takeda; outcome will influence valuation and estimate revisions .
  • Expense discipline remains important: R&D and G&A are elevated; absent milestones, quarterly losses can reemerge—watch deferred revenue recognition cadence from the Takeda agreement .
  • Stock reaction to Q4 print was muted-to-negative post-release, likely reflecting investor focus on sustainability vs milestone timing; positioning into March catalysts may offer trading opportunities .
  • No Q4 call transcript available; rely on upcoming events (PV Day replay, conferences) and filings for guidance nuance and commercialization timelines .